| First Page | Previous Page | Next Page | Last Page
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Citation | Zanders, Jean Pascal, Edvard Karlsson, Lena Melin, Erik Naslund and Lennart Thaning. "Risk Assessment of Terrorism with Chemical and Biological Weapons (Appendix 9A)." SIPRI Yearbook 2000: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. (Oxford University Press: Oxford, 2000), 537-559. Available online at: http://projects.sipri.se/cbw/research/cbw-yb20009a.pdf |
| Topic 1 | CBRN Terrorism |
| Topic 2 | CBRN Counterterrorism Policy |
| Topic 3 | New Threats |
| Country | |
| Abstract | This appendix offers a multidisciplinary analysis of the factors that contribute to or inhibit the acquisition of chemical and biological weapons (CBW) by terrorist organizations and the way these factors may influence the consequences of an attack with such agents. The authors conclude that while the domestic development, manufacture and use of highly lethal chemical or biological agents (such as sarin or anthrax) by a terrorist organization has the potential to cause mass casualties, only vertically organized, highly integrated and ideologically uniform groups (such as a religious cult) are able to carry out large-scale CBW production in secrecy. Also, if the material base (number of members, financial assets, property owned and infrastructure) of a terrorist group is restricted it may only be able to produce a limited quantity of high-quality chemical or biological warfare agents. While loosely structured and cell-based terrorist groups or loners can manufacture small quantities of such agents, they are unlikely to cause mass casualties. Thus, the most catastrophic scenarios involving mass casualties, though possible, are not likely to occur. Nevertheless, because of the potential consequences for the targeted society of a terrorist attack with CBW, governments must be prepared for such an attack. The key issue is thus to devise and execute balanced policies. Overreaction can lead to country-wide anxiety and paranoia. In a climate of fear even hoaxes or the threat of the use of toxicants or pathogens may achieve the terrorists' goals. |
Page 409 of 411
Please contact james.forest@usma.army.mil for updates or corrections.